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Don't pick a partner by average success

A blended success rate can hide one operator having a terrible day. Slice the number by rail, amount, and environment before you pick a partner.

Babacar Diop
By Babacar Diop, Founder
|
||Opinion
Coins, a notebook, and a pen on a wooden table
Photo on Pexels.

A slide says almost every payment succeeds. The room relaxes. Somewhere a merchant just lost a Saturday because one operator, one amount, one hour, failed all morning.

Averages are a sales tool. They are a weak operating tool. They hide the bad day.

The blend is not the shop

Most of the traffic can succeed while a slice of it is unusable. A rail that works at noon and dies on payday. An amount band that always times out. A test ledger that looks fine while live money does not move.

If you only watch the blend, you will keep the partner who is cheap on the slide and expensive at the till.

I have sat in rooms where the number on the wall was healthy and the WhatsApp thread from merchants was not. Those two facts can be true at the same time. The blend is an average of many shops, many hours, many methods. The merchant lives in one shop, one hour, one method.

Slice before you pick

Ask for the same number cut four ways. By rail. By operator. By amount. By environment. If they cannot show that, they do not know their own factory.

Then ask what happens on the slice that fails. Who sees it. How fast the merchant hears. Whether the buyer gets a receipt or a shrug.

A partner who only reports the blend is asking you to underwrite their worst hour.

Live is not test

A sandbox that always returns success is not a rail. Live Wave in Côte d'Ivoire is not a promise about another country. Live MTN stays pending until the customer approves on the phone. Cards have a floor. Wallets appear only on supported devices.

If a partner shows you one success rate for all of that, they have already decided you will not look.

Ask what the number excludes. Timeouts. Abandons. Test traffic. One operator they quietly turned off. If the exclusions are longer than the chart, the chart is a brochure.

The hour that matters

Payday. Lunch. The evening after a spot on TV. The Saturday market. Those hours are not a rounding error. They are the reason you hired a processor.

I care less about a monthly blend than about whether the method your customers actually use still works at half past six on the 30th. If it does not, the month can still look fine. The shop will not.

Amount bands lie in the same way. A rail that loves 2,000 F CFA and chokes at 50,000 F CFA will still post a handsome average if most tickets are small. Ask for the band your catalog actually sells.

What a receipt is for

When a slice fails, the buyer should not have to guess. A receipt, a pending state they can see, or a clear decline. A shrug in a chat window is not operations. It is the merchant doing the processor's job.

Ask who owns the conversation when money is stuck. If the answer is you, the merchant, every time, price that into the contract. Support is part of the rail.

What we watch

We watch the slices because the merchant lives in them. One bad operator is not a rounding error if that is the method their customers use.

We will not sell you a blended success rate as proof that money moved. If a day was bad, say so. Then fix the slice.

This is not a claim that we never fail. It is a claim about how we talk about failure. The dashboard shows the payment, the method, the status. Webhooks fire for the event that happened, not the event that would have made the slide prettier.

What this is not

This is not a published uptime number. We do not have a sourced figure to put in the first sentence, so I will not invent one. Incidents go on status.lomi.africa. A blog post is the wrong place to launder a percentage.

This is not advice to pick the most expensive partner. It is advice to refuse a single blend as the whole story.

How the blend gets built

A blended rate is a weighted average. If most of the volume sits on the rail that works, the number stays pretty while the thin rail your customers actually use is dying. Weight is not the same as importance. A small slice can be the whole weekend for one shop.

That is why I ask for the denominator. Success of what. Of attempts. Of completed checkouts. Of money that reached the merchant balance. Those are three different factories. Mixing them is how a slide stays calm.

I also ask who is in the sample. All merchants. Merchants who processed more than a threshold. Merchants who did not complain. If the sample is the people for whom the factory already works, the number will flatter the factory.

Product last

On lomi. you can see the method on the payment. You can see pending versus completed. You can see a Wave sale in Côte d'Ivoire as Wave, not as a generic mobile-money bucket. That will not save a bad hour by itself. It stops us from talking about the hour as if it were a blend.

What to ask on Monday

Before you renew a contract, ask for last month cut by rail and by environment. Ask for the worst hour, not the best day. Ask who gets paged when a slice dies, and how the merchant hears.

If the answer is a single percentage, you already know enough.

A healthy average can still be one shop having a terrible day.

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